Post-bubble · Free The World

Insights · Post-bubble

How big is the business after the rent gets repriced?

This page compares IPO market cap, current market cap, and an illustrative residual cap equal to current value minus the site's directional freed-capital estimate. It is a thought experiment with receipts, not a liquidation oracle.

Companies with IPO baseline

132 published company currently lacks an IPO comparison point.

Current cap in sample

$22.8T

Only companies with an IPO baseline are included in this view.

Illustrative residual cap

$20T

Current cap minus the portion the model sees as most vulnerable to open pressure.

Average IPO return

3,502.6x

Average IPO CAGR 30.8%.

Log-scale comparison

Now, and after the unwind

The chart compares each company's current market cap with an illustrative residual cap after subtracting the site's directional freed-capital estimate. The log scale keeps smaller residual values legible beside today's giants.

On mobile, the main story is presented as ranked cards first so you do not have to pan across the full comparison chart to understand the page.

NVIDIA

NVDA

5.2% challenged

Current cap

$4.3T

Residual cap

$4.1T

At risk

$222.5B

Apple

AAPL

6.3% challenged

Current cap

$3.7T

Residual cap

$3.5T

At risk

$234.3B

Microsoft

MSFT

15.9% challenged

Current cap

$3.3T

Residual cap

$2.8T

At risk

$523.2B

Alphabet

GOOGL

18.5% challenged

Current cap

$2.4T

Residual cap

$2T

At risk

$444.3B

Amazon

AMZN

13.7% challenged

Current cap

$2.2T

Residual cap

$1.9T

At risk

$301.3B

Meta Platforms

Broadcom

AVGO

10.7% challenged

Current cap

$1.1T

Residual cap

$982.2B

At risk

$117.8B

Tesla

TSLA

19.0% challenged

Current cap

$1T

Residual cap

$810B

At risk

$190B

Walmart

WMT

12.1% challenged

Current cap

$800B

Residual cap

$703B

At risk

$97B

Visa

7.9% challenged

Current cap

$595.7B

Residual cap

$548.8B

At risk

$46.9B

Palantir Technologies

PLTR

7.5% challenged

Current cap

$370.2B

Residual cap

$342.4B

At risk

$27.8B

Goldman Sachs

9.5% challenged

Current cap

$291.5B

Residual cap

$263.8B

At risk

$27.7B

Arista Networks

ANET

16.7% challenged

Current cap

$187.1B

Residual cap

$155.9B

At risk

$31.2B

Palo Alto Networks

PANW

15.0% challenged

Current cap

$167B

Residual cap

$141.9B

At risk

$25B

CrowdStrike

CRWD

10.0% challenged

Current cap

$166.2B

Residual cap

$149.5B

At risk

$16.6B

Uber Technologies

UBER

0.0% challenged

Current cap

$143.4B

Residual cap

$143.4B

At risk

Equinix

EQIX

0.0% challenged

Current cap

$106.5B

Residual cap

$106.5B

At risk

CME Group

CME

0.0% challenged

Current cap

$105.5B

Residual cap

$105.5B

At risk

Monolithic Power Systems

MPWR

12.7% challenged

Current cap

$78.1B

Residual cap

$68.2B

At risk

$9.9B

Illustrative residual cap

Current market cap

Capital split

How much looks durable versus challengeable?

A second view sizes each bar by the company's current market cap, then splits the bar into residual value and the share the model believes could be repriced if substitutes compound.

Illustrative residual cap

Freed-capital potential

NVIDIA

Residual $4.1TAt risk $222.5B-5.2%

Current market cap $4.3T

Apple

Residual $3.5TAt risk $234.3B-6.3%

Current market cap $3.7T

Microsoft

Residual $2.8TAt risk $523.2B-15.9%

Current market cap $3.3T

Alphabet

Residual $2TAt risk $444.3B-18.5%

Current market cap $2.4T

Amazon

Residual $1.9TAt risk $301.3B-13.7%

Current market cap $2.2T

Meta Platforms

Residual $1.4TAt risk $446B-24.8%

Current market cap $1.8T

Broadcom

Residual $982.2BAt risk $117.8B-10.7%

Current market cap $1.1T

Tesla

Residual $810BAt risk $190B-19.0%

Current market cap $1T

Walmart

Residual $703BAt risk $97B-12.1%

Current market cap $800B

Visa

Residual $548.8BAt risk $46.9B-7.9%

Current market cap $595.7B

Palantir Technologies

Residual $342.4BAt risk $27.8B-7.5%

Current market cap $370.2B

Goldman Sachs

Residual $263.8BAt risk $27.7B-9.5%

Current market cap $291.5B

Arista Networks

Residual $155.9BAt risk $31.2B-16.7%

Current market cap $187.1B

Palo Alto Networks

Residual $141.9BAt risk $25B-15.0%

Current market cap $167B

CrowdStrike

Residual $149.5BAt risk $16.6B-10.0%

Current market cap $166.2B

Uber Technologies

Residual $143.4BAt risk $0-0.0%

Current market cap $143.4B

Equinix

Residual $106.5BAt risk $0-0.0%

Current market cap $106.5B

CME Group

Residual $105.5BAt risk $0-0.0%

Current market cap $105.5B

Monolithic Power Systems

Residual $68.2BAt risk $9.9B-12.7%

Current market cap $78.1B

Reference table

Published company comparisons

The table below keeps the underlying values visible for readers who prefer numbers before vibes.

Company	IPO cap	Current cap	Residual cap	At risk	IPO x	IPO CAGR
NVIDIA NVDA	$332,444,856	$4.3T	$4.1T	$222.5B 5.2%	12,934.5x	41.7%
Apple AAPL	$1.2B	$3.7T	$3.5T	$234.3B 6.3%	3,102.1x	19.4%
Microsoft MSFT	$519,017,373	$3.3T	$2.8T	$523.2B 15.9%	6,358.2x	24.5%
Alphabet GOOGL	$23.1B	$2.4T	$2T	$444.3B 18.5%	104.1x	24.0%
Amazon AMZN	$429,456,636	$2.2T	$1.9T	$301.3B 13.7%	5,122.8x	34.5%
Meta Platforms META	$81.2B	$1.8T	$1.4T	$446B 24.8%	22.2x	25.1%
Broadcom AVGO	$3.5B	$1.1T	$982.2B	$117.8B 10.7%	310.9x	41.3%
Tesla TSLA	$1.6B	$1T	$810B	$190B 19.0%	631.8x	50.8%
Walmart WMT	$21,450,000	$800B	$703B	$97B 12.1%	37,296.0x	20.9%
Visa V	$45.4B	$595.7B	$548.8B	$46.9B 7.9%	13.1x	15.4%
Palantir Technologies PLTR	$15.7B	$370.2B	$342.4B	$27.8B 7.5%	23.6x	78.1%
Goldman Sachs GS	$32.8B	$291.5B	$263.8B	$27.7B 9.5%	8.9x	8.4%
Arista Networks ANET	$2.8B	$187.1B	$155.9B	$31.2B 16.7%	68.0x	42.3%
Palo Alto Networks PANW	$3.5B	$167B	$141.9B	$25B 15.0%	47.2x	32.1%
CrowdStrike CRWD	$11.4B	$166.2B	$149.5B	$16.6B 10.0%	14.6x	47.0%
Uber Technologies UBER	$75.5B	$143.4B	$143.4B	$0 0.0%	1.9x	9.5%
Equinix EQIX	$967,900,000	$106.5B	$106.5B	$0 0.0%	110.0x	20.0%
CME Group CME	$1.2B	$105.5B	$105.5B	$0 0.0%	85.1x	20.8%
Monolithic Power Systems MPWR	$265,500,000	$78.1B	$68.2B	$9.9B 12.7%	294.2x	30.2%

Current exclusions

These published companies have current market-cap and freed-capital data, but they do not yet have a usable IPO baseline in the published corpus, so they are excluded from the comparison charts instead of being faked into neatness.

3MAbbott LaboratoriesAbbVieAccentureAdobeAdvanced Micro DevicesAltria GroupAmerican ExpressAmerican TowerAmgenAmphenolAnalog DevicesApplied MaterialsAT&TAutomatic Data ProcessingBank of AmericaBank of New York MellonBerkshire HathawayBlackRockBlackstoneBoeingBooking HoldingsBoston ScientificBristol Myers SquibbCadence Design SystemsCapital One FinancialCaterpillarCharles SchwabChevronChubbCignaCisco SystemsCitigroupCloudflareCoca-ColaComcastConocoPhillipsConstellation EnergyCorningCostcoCSXCumminsCVS HealthDanaherDeere & CompanyDell TechnologiesDocusignDropboxDuke EnergyEatonEli LillyEmerson ElectricExxon MobilFedExFreeport-McMoRanGE AerospaceGE VernovaGeneral DynamicsGilead SciencesHCA HealthcareHoneywell InternationalHowmet AerospaceIBMIntelIntercontinental ExchangeIntuitIntuitive SurgicalJohnson & JohnsonJohnson Controls InternationalJPMorgan ChaseKKRKLALam ResearchLindeLockheed MartinLowe's CompaniesMarriott InternationalMarsh & McLennanMastercardMcDonald'sMcKessonMedtronicMerck & Co.Micron TechnologyMondelez InternationalMoody's CorporationMorgan StanleyNetflixNewmontNextEra EnergyNorfolk SouthernNorthrop GrummanNXP SemiconductorsO'Reilly AutomotiveOracleParker-HannifinPepsiCoPfizerPhilip Morris InternationalPNC Financial Services GroupProcter & GambleProgressivePrologisQualcommQuanta ServicesRTXS&P GlobalSalesforceSeagate TechnologyServiceNowSherwin-WilliamsSLBSouthern CompanyStarbucksStrykerSynopsysT-Mobile USTexas InstrumentsThermo Fisher ScientificTJX CompaniesTrane TechnologiesU.S. BancorpUnion PacificUnitedHealth GroupVerizon CommunicationsVertex PharmaceuticalsWalt DisneyWaste ManagementWells FargoWelltowerWestern DigitalWilliams Companies